An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

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An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by farmer_broke on Sun 7 May - 12:41

Many always come to mind when farming here, thank you.  Some will laugh because they have already stumbled upon this investment.  There has been lots of funds made on this investment and some have used the item in the Harvest Hoedown competition.  (They know what it is now and this is a nice review for them.  It will be good for those wondering about EV analysis or just want an answer.)

You need a piece of paper, something to write with and a calculator.  You will have to look at the market prices of only five (5) items, use the calculator five times and do very little thinking or as much as you like.

I want to look at products and here are the products and the EVs to look at:  eggs (EV 300), cow milk (EV 465), honey (EV 740),  parrot feathers (EV 1,864), and peanut butter (EV 2,512).

(1)  Now find the lowest market value of each of the above products on your market. 

(2) Now divide the market price that you found by the EV given.  Get three (3) places past the decimal point. This is the market to EV ratio. 

(3) Look at all five and find which has the lowest market to EV ratio. 

Findings:  Parrot feathers should be the lowest. (If you find something different let me know and I will explain.  Unlikely though!)  

So I want to make some easy ccs with as little risk as possible.

So I buy parrot feathers and I feel I can sell to those doing the Harvest Hoedown (if they are allowed to be donated). But I will sell to anyone when the price is right to make ccs.    

MY decision is to buy them as cheaply as I can and I am willing to hold them for a while and wait.

How much must I sell them for before I make anything?  Right now, I am willing to pay no more than 1,864 (which just so happens to be the EV but not too important now).  So if I pay 1,864 (at most) then I divide that number by .90 to see exactly where I will make -0- ccs.  

Why -0- ccs?  Because I must sell at least for that amount just to get the ccs back that I invested or I will loose.  (1,864 / .90 = 2071.111111111)  So I must sell for 2071.12  .  

Will I be able to sell for 2071.12?  I must decide and I will say yes and I will want even more for my effort.  (I will want a fair return and not take advantage of anyone AND charge what I think I can get ........ I don't want them back and I want to make sure they sell.)

How often do I buy?  I will buy every single time I sign onto the game.  I am on a baby farm and this one has about 26,000 parrot feathers and it will just collect and hold and wait for payday. No need for all that market clearing.

How will they be produced?  I don't know and I don't care.  I just want to do nothing and someone else do the work.  (There are trees and one can use the production factory (but very unprofitable.))  The trees put them out EVERY single day nonstop and others sell them.  

Nothing stops us from buying anything else.  This farm does have a little honey and cow milk too. But I am looking for the easy ccs with parrot feathers. 

Sometimes one can find the parrot feathers for 1,100 or 1,600.....   Well if I will pay up to a maximum of 1,864 now then I surely will buy the same thing for 1,200.  (And I can sell cheaper too if I choose but I am not selling now because I want to gather them.  UP TO YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU.)

Boring?  Extremely because this is done every single day and .....  well you can bake bread or watch TV or even better........get Sleepy to do the buying work.

This is only a very brief beginning use of EV analysis.  This method is not for the new player.  If one does not thoroughly understand the above then there is no need to go any further trying to understand EV analysis until they do.  (And there is no need to make the above computation every single day ....... months can pass or days.... whatever one chooses.)
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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by Tookie on Sun 7 May - 18:58

I will do this. Not today but I will find some time, i think tomorrow. It's best If I just go through the process or I won't learn.  girl blush


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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by farmer_broke on Mon 8 May - 17:10

I'm sitting on the edge of my seat waiting to hear what Tookie has to say next. 

(The broke farm just bought parrot feathers -----   7 @ 1,771 and 1 @ 1,864.  Next price is 1,994 and they can keep um.  Boring.   All done, and gotta get back to work.)
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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by Tookie on Mon 8 May - 17:47

I found myself with too much to do today. Still busy... Sorry,... patience!


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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by Banjoman on Mon 8 May - 23:28

I'm in and following this thread... when time allows during our busy season.
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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by Tookie on Tue 9 May - 8:24

Once more...very busy. I think I'm not going to promise anything on the "when" at the moment.  worry


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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by farmer_broke on Mon 15 May - 19:13

Later for all his waiting!  I want to throw this piece of paper away with these five (5) numbers.  

(1) One day I wrote down the market prices of parrot feathers (1,415.00), eggs (2,000.00), cow milk (737.30), honey (1,300.00) and peanut butter (4,859.41) .

(2) The EV of each was given above and are: eggs (EV 300), cow milk (EV 465), honey (EV 740),  parrot feathers (EV 1,864), and peanut butter (EV 2,512).

(3) Next I take the market price and divide by the EV. (This will give the market to EV ratio.)

eggs 2,000 divided by 300 ...... 6.667
cow milk 737.30 divided by 465 ..... 1.586
honey 1,300.00 divided by 740 ..... 1.757
parrot feathers 1,415.00 divided by 1865 .....  0.760 (<<<< $$$$$$$$)
peanut butter 4,859.41 divided by 2,512 .....  1.935


(4) IF/WHEN there is a general call where a choice of items may be donated, the credit is most often given by EVs.  (If items have been gathered at a low rate then ones ccs invested will go further.  Likewise, if one pays less and one donates them then their ccs paid will go further.)  

I feel I can unload all of a cheaply paid-for item during an event such as the Harvest Hoedown. But I'll consider any opportunity to make a buck (off someone's work).   

Parrot feathers is a decent choice because one will get more EV and my farm quite possibly will sell for more ccs than it paid.  

(5)  I know the next issue very well:  So how will I determine the maximum amount I will pay for parrot feathers?

(Also, if one wishes to invest in eggs with a ratio of 6.667 and feels there will be a profit in them from someone donating eggs during an event which calls for products is ..... )

Nothing stops one from investing in eggs though.  This farm has eggs on the market that it purchased on the market at this time.
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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by Tookie on Tue 30 May - 14:39

For once and for all, I will admit to hating calculations, and being unable to digest them.  cry 3

I truly thank you for your effort, flowerkiss  to help me, to help me understand, and to try and get me to DO this.  thank you

I really wanted to.  But I must admit defeat.  dedtired
 I will just look at this again and again.... Eek and not do it.  boh

I think I have to be honest about that by now. I just won't do it.  don't know  

I guess I must accept I'm an intuitive farmer instead.   hmz2 I hope you still love me now.  worry

girl blush


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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by farmer_broke on Thu 8 Jun - 4:00

Tookie wrote:...
I think I have to be honest about that by now. I just won't do it.  don't know  
...
I really like that!  If everybody does this little scheme then I will have to come up with something new and I'm a dummy.  Anyway, let's see how this nonsense is doing.  

First the current market prices and divide by EV to see the ratio.

eggs     2,007.90 divided by 300 .....  6.693
cow milk   943.31 divided by 465 ..... 2.0289
honey     1,614.98 divided by 740 ..... 2.182
parrot feathers     1,906.22 divided by 1,864 ..... 1.023  (<<<<<<$$$$$$)
peanut butter     5,354.08 divided by 2,518 ..... 2.126


Hmmmm!  Looks like parrot feathers are still the lowest.  

So anyone with just a wee bit of common sense will donate parrot feathers for a product call or a general call where parrots feathers are allowed.  (Please just take my word for this that there is no lower cost to EV ratio in the game for items which most likely will be donated.)  I wonder who would have them for sale?   

Any farm I visit, I continued t be a real dummy and bought parrot feathers for no more than 1,864.00.  NO MORE but surely I would pay less.  

Maybe an increase in what I am willing to pay is in order though.   Why?  Because I'm not able to buy as many so quickly now.  hmmmmmm Price going up and I know why!  

psssssst .... I did list a few at 1864 to see what would happen and they went.  

We can just create another column in a spread sheet and see a little more:  Which of the five products is moving up the fastest.  (I'll just show the five products but if one has the market prices then one can look a long long long long way back ..... up to them.)

I'll take the current EV ratio and subtract the first EV ratio from it.  I want to see the EV rate exact increase.  (Create another worksheet column and one can see the percentage increase and see even more.  We're just looking at five of nearly 50 products.  hahahaha One can do the whole game.  Anytime!  

eggs     6.693 - 6.667 = 0.026 increase
cow milk   2.029 - 1.586 = 0.443 increase
honey      2.182 - 1.757 = 0.425 increase
parrot feathers    1.023 - .760 = 0.263 increase <---$$$  (in the middle of all ... safe?)
peanut butter     2.126 - 1.935 = 0.191 increase 


The increases are for about 22 days.

(I'm going to get like Tookie ...... "I just won't do it" .... gottta luv Tookie ...)

I sure don't want to rise my buy price because I'm a little bit broke right now.

But if I don't raise the buy price then I might not be able to get anymore parrot feathers.

May I apply for a loan for a little while?
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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by GuineaUp on Thu 8 Jun - 5:30

...


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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by Tookie on Thu 8 Jun - 12:31

From your post Broke, I take it I better get some parrot feathers...  counting full marks

Simple me.  thud  ghehe


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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by farmer_broke on Fri 9 Jun - 8:17

Tookie I was thinking about you just a minute ago.  I was doing the same thing:  just going to parrot feathers and buying ..... but no more than 1,864 for this farm.  Being a dummy, I looked and found a couple of pages at 1,260.  Then some at 1,550.  Then some at 1,640 .... 

and I just did the same old stupid thing and just bought them all.  

Well, I know you don't want to divide five numbers sooooooooooooooooooo

if you promise not to say I'm stupid to everybody then ....

I've got another investment juuuuuuuuuust for you.

And get this:  I'll even pay for it.  Maybe you'll even do it on a baby farm.  

I've got a baby doing what I'll explain.  It is maybe level 55 with about 350 million ccs and has been around just a few months.  

But you can't think!  Noooooooooooooooooo  I'll tell you about it later.  I need to check that farm..... but I feel so stupid when I check it!
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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by Tookie on Fri 9 Jun - 8:55

Well, when it comes to feeling stupid.... I was going to buy parrot feathers... went to the market...and then completely forgot. 

I'll try again right now!


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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by Tookie on Fri 9 Jun - 8:57

K... Went to the market.... and gave up. 

ONLY lots of 1 parrot feather...  hmpf

I think I'll just keep growing them. I got several pfeater trees out... so they'll add up.


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Re: An Investment for Tookie (with simple EV analysis)

Post by farmer_broke on Fri 9 Jun - 10:25

Laughing away!  Tookie,,,,,,,,,,,,, Most likely if there were only lots of 1 parrot feather then someone else is buying them too.  They leave the ones for someone else to clean up if they want them AND they are keeping the price low.  

You'll get lucky and find some 5's and 10's and 20's and maybe 100's .  My farms are just buying them as they have enough ccs to spend.


Here is how to speed buy:  

With one hand put the curser to select the item you wish to buy.  With the other hand just hit return.  So I just do the idiot thing:  click, return, click, return, click, return, click, return ........You don't even have to move the curser once it is in place.  I guarantee that you will be brain dread after a while.  

Nothing wrong with parrot feathers out at this time.  Mine have been out for years.

(Sometimes I will even leave the 1's for escalonilla to clean up. hahaha  People know I've been there when they see nothing but 1's.  At least I leave something but I'm not even doing that anymore at 1,864 .  Sometimes I will even list a one at 1,863.99 to make sure they know.)

So you like growing.  Again, I've really got the thing just for you.  The millions will just roll in! I cannot give up on Tookie just yet.  And NO exchange value thoughts.  (Again, no thinking)

And you'll soon be an (I'll fill in the blank soon) queen.
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